School absentee data modeling for possible detection of chem-bio attacks

Holger M. Jaenisch; James W. Handley; Kristina L. Jaenisch; Jeffrey P. Faucheux

doi:10.1117/12.608687

23 May 2005 School absentee data modeling for possible detection of chem-bio attacks

Holger M. Jaenisch, James W. Handley, Kristina L. Jaenisch, Jeffrey P. Faucheux

Proceedings Volume 5845, Noise in Complex Systems and Stochastic Dynamics III; (2005) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.608687
Event: SPIE Third International Symposium on Fluctuations and Noise, 2005, Austin, Texas, United States

Abstract

A baseline mathematical Data Model for rapid detection of events affecting school attendance was established using measured absenteeism. We derived a process model in the form of a differential equation of baseline or nominal behavior of sufficient fidelity to enable predictive what-if excursions to be done. Also, we derived a change detector equation enabling aberrant absenteeism to be flagged on the first day of detection. Used together, both mathematical models provide a powerful tool set for analysis and examining what unusual absenteeism patterns might be like due to chem-bio attack. A convenient single page lookup table is provided to give predictive analysis capability without resorting to cumbersome calculations.

Citation Download Citation

Holger M. Jaenisch, James W. Handley, Kristina L. Jaenisch, and Jeffrey P. Faucheux "School absentee data modeling for possible detection of chem-bio attacks", Proc. SPIE 5845, Noise in Complex Systems and Stochastic Dynamics III, (23 May 2005); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.608687

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