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Aryo Condro

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Proceedings Article | 24 December 2019 Paper

Short-term projection of Bornean orangutan spatial distribution based on climate and land cover change scenario

A. Adhi Condro, Lilik Prasetyo, Siti Rushayati

Proceedings Volume 11372, 113721B (2019) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2541633

KEYWORDS: Climatology, Climate change, Atmospheric modeling, Animal model studies, Data modeling, Modeling

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Primates, the closest living biological relatives with human, play the important roles in the livelihoods, human-health, and ecosystem services. In the Anthropocene, populations of 75% of primate species are decreasing globally – due to cultivation activities, logging harvesting, hunting, and climate change. In this study, we focus on Bornean orangutan (Pongo pygmaeus) as the global conservation icons. Hence, understanding Bornean orangutan’s distribution dynamics is crucial regarding to conservation and climate mitigation strategies. The objectives of this study are: (1) to predict current and future spatial distribution of orangutan in Borneo using pessimistic climate model and land cover projection as well; (2) to identify spatial dynamics of Bornean orangutan distribution due to climate and land cover change in 2030. Species distribution modelling of baseline and future scenario was performed using logistic regression model. Land cover categories and climate parameters (i.e. annual temperature and precipitation) were used for model predictors. Presence points of observed primate species were retrieved from Ministry of Environment and Forestry Indonesia (MoEF). We used WorldClim v2.0 annual temperature and precipitation data for the baseline and CMIP5 MIROC-ESM model RCP8.5 2030 for the future climate scenario. We performed cellular automata algorithm to retrieve 2030 projected land-use for the future. Distance to road and distance to selected important land covers were used for transition potential modelling of land cover projection. Generally, the prediction shows that suitable habitat of Bornean orangutan will decrease in 2030. However, we found the gain of suitable area of Bornean orangutan. Findings of this study should support the identification of priority conservation area of Bornean orangutan for the future and wildlife corridor management planning.

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