Electricity price forecasting of coupled carbon price

M. H. Jin; Y. H. Xing; B. C. Wang; X. Yang; X. R. Liu

doi:10.1117/12.2645698

23 November 2022 Electricity price forecasting of coupled carbon price

M. H. Jin, Y. H. Xing, B. C. Wang, X. Yang, X. R. Liu

Proceedings Volume 12302, Seventh International Conference on Electromechanical Control Technology and Transportation (ICECTT 2022); 1230248 (2022) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2645698
Event: Seventh International Conference on Electromechanical Control Technology and Transportation (ICECTT 2022), 2022, Guangzhou, China

Abstract

Under the background of "dual carbon" targets, China's carbon market has put into operation. Bargaining transaction in the carbon market will make carbon price one of the costs of power plant. However, the key factor, carbon price, was not included in many previous studies and predictions on China's electricity price. Therefore, with the gradual popularization of carbon market in the future, it’s crucial to incorporate carbon price into the cost of power enterprises, re-forecasting the electricity price. In this paper, the electricity price in power market is discomposed into Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMF) by means of coupled carbon price and Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) method. Secondly, the IMF sequence is classified, and each IMF component possesses its corresponding GRU neural network for training. Finally, in combination with carbon neutral strategies, the CGE modal is adopted to predict the long-term trend of carbon price, so as to reconstruct the electricity price and establish the electricity price prediction model coupled with the carbon price.

Citation Download Citation

M. H. Jin, Y. H. Xing, B. C. Wang, X. Yang, and X. R. Liu "Electricity price forecasting of coupled carbon price", Proc. SPIE 12302, Seventh International Conference on Electromechanical Control Technology and Transportation (ICECTT 2022), 1230248 (23 November 2022); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2645698

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