Research on time series prediction of terrorist attacks based on ARIMA model

Zhi-jie Wang; Jian-ru Feng

doi:10.1117/12.2671562

29 March 2023 Research on time series prediction of terrorist attacks based on ARIMA model

Zhi-jie Wang, Jian-ru Feng

Proceedings Volume 12594, Second International Conference on Electronic Information Engineering and Computer Communication (EIECC 2022); 125942F (2023) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2671562
Event: Second International Conference on Electronic Information Engineering and Computer Communication (EIECC 2022), 2022, Xi'an, China

Abstract

In order to provide intelligence support for regional counter-terrorism work, this paper establishes a terrorist attack prediction model based on ARIMA time series algorithm, and the experimental results show that the model has good prediction ability for terrorist attacks, and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of two experimental arithmetic cases are 13.4% and 10.5%, respectively, and the model can provide macroscopic decision support for regional counter-terrorism work. The model is then applied to terrorist attack data from 2000-2020 to address the counterterrorism situation in South Asia and further improve the security environment in South America.

Citation Download Citation

Zhi-jie Wang and Jian-ru Feng "Research on time series prediction of terrorist attacks based on ARIMA model", Proc. SPIE 12594, Second International Conference on Electronic Information Engineering and Computer Communication (EIECC 2022), 125942F (29 March 2023); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2671562

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