Potential relation between Covid-19 vaccines and Covid-19 death number

Wenyu Zhang

doi:10.1117/12.2669950

24 March 2023 Potential relation between Covid-19 vaccines and Covid-19 death number

Wenyu Zhang

Proceedings Volume 12611, Second International Conference on Biological Engineering and Medical Science (ICBioMed 2022); 126115J (2023) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2669950
Event: International Conference on Biological Engineering and Medical Science (ICBioMed2022), 2022, Oxford, United Kingdom

Abstract

Starting from the year 2019, a newly developed respiratory diseases, SARS-CoV-2, have spread out globally. In order to control and eliminate this pandemic, vaccines have been widely investigated and taken by humans all over the world. This paper’s work aims to formulate a linear regression model to test the pattern formed between vaccination number and death toll caused by newly developed viruses SARS-CoV-2. K-fold cross-validation method was used to justify the linear regression result with other support of different plots (residual and QQ plot). The result of this research seems contradict with prediction. The R-squared value from linear regression is not strong enough to support the prediction with super large MAE value from cross-validation. Residual plot is not evenly spreading and points on QQ-plot are not aligned with the trend line. All these results mean there are no evident linear regression relations between the independent variables and dependent variables, but a positive relation is discovered in a short period of time. More situations are needed to be considered under this circumstance. All the uncertainties mentioned above are factors that might influence the result and needed further investigation. The statistical research in this paper helps with the evaluation of vaccine efficacy so that safer and more effective vaccines can be selected to reduce mortality.

Citation Download Citation

Wenyu Zhang "Potential relation between Covid-19 vaccines and Covid-19 death number", Proc. SPIE 12611, Second International Conference on Biological Engineering and Medical Science (ICBioMed 2022), 126115J (24 March 2023); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2669950

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KEYWORDS

COVID 19

Data modeling

Linear regression

Cross validation

Viruses

Diseases and disorders

Computer simulations

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