For the past 50 years, mobile bandwidth requirements have evolved from voice calls and texting to ultra-high-definition video and a variety of augmented reality/virtual reality applications. Expanding machine-to-machine applications, such as smart meters, video surveillance, healthcare monitoring, connected drives, and automated logistics, contribute in a major way to device and connection growth and push the expansion of data center infrastructure. The popularity of pluggable modules will continue as they take advantage of 100G single-wavelength optics already proven in 400GbE systems and thus can be technically and cost-effectively implemented in new form factors for 800G modules. However, current form factors will be limited in their ability to support 1.6T and higher capacities in terms of the required electrical and optical densities, thermal issues, and power consumption. As a result of discrete electrical device implementation, power dissipation and thermal management are becoming limiting factors for future pluggable optics. Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) is a new approach that brings the optics and the switch ASIC close together and aims to overcome the challenges. Furthermore, CPO technology is considered a new deployment model of the whole ecosystem and an alternative to pluggable optics. The industry is working on heterogeneous integration of InP lasers directly onto silicon chips enabling scalable integration and elimination of the cost and complexity. Revenue generated by the CPO market reached around $6M in 2020 and is expected to reach $366M in 2026 at a 101% Compound Annual Growth Rate for 2020-2026. This growth is driven by substantial energy (<30%) and capital expenditure ($/Gbps) savings over pluggable optics.
The state of the art of fiber-optic communication technologies has advanced dramatically over the past 25 years. The highest capacity of commercial fiber-optic links available in the 1990s was only 2.5-10 Gb/s while today they can carry up to 800 Gb/s. The last decade of developments have enabled higher efficiency digital communication systems and solved problems with degraded signals. Optical transceivers are widely used in server network cards, switches, routers and wireless base station equipment in a variety of network architectures and applications. The new form factors are increasingly universal and designed to reduce their size and thus power consumption. Inside modules the optics and integrated circuits are getting closer together. Therefore, silicon photonics might represent a key enabling technology for further development of optical interconnect solutions needed to address growing traffic. This technology will play an important role in 500 m – 80 km distance applications. Industry is working on heterogeneous integration of InP lasers directly onto silicon chips. The advantage is scalable integration and elimination of the cost and complexity of the optical package for 400G and beyond. Revenue generated by optical transceivers is expected to more than double to around by 2025 at a compound annual growth rate for 2020-2025 of 15%.
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